Amidst the volatile global economic and political landscape and increasing pressure from trade barriers, Vietnam’s agriculture sector continues to maintain its key role, with export turnover of agricultural, forestry, and fishery products reaching USD 33.5 billion in the first half of 2025. However, to sustain growth momentum and ensure long-term development, the sector requires a more flexible and comprehensive strategy for the remaining six months of the year and the years ahead.

Opportunities intertwined with challenges

In the first half of 2025, Vietnamese agricultural products continued to affirm their pivotal role in the national economy, despite facing numerous challenges such as U.S. retaliatory tariffs, climate change, and global market price fluctuations.

According to statistics, the total import-export value of agricultural, forestry, and fishery products in the first half of 2025 is estimated at around USD 57 billion, with exports accounting for USD 33.5 billion and imports about USD 23.5 billion. Agricultural exports alone are estimated at USD 18.3 billion, up 16.8% compared to the same period in 2024.

According to statistics, the total import and export value of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in the first 6 months of 2025 is estimated at about 57 billion USD.

Most key agricultural export products maintained growth momentum, such as coffee, rubber, pepper, and cashew nuts. However, some products showed a downward trend. For example, fruit and vegetables saw an estimated export value of USD 2.7 billion, down 17.1% compared to the same period in 2024; rice exports were estimated at USD 2.6 billion, a decline of 9.8% in value over the same period.

Assessing the agricultural market in the first half of 2025, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Lan, Deputy Director of the Center for Industrial and Commercial Information (Ministry of Industry and Trade), noted that amid global political and economic fluctuations, along with changes in policies from major importing countries and limitations in domestic capacity, Vietnamese agricultural products are facing both opportunities and challenges in striving to meet the 2025 growth targets and beyond.

On the positive side, demand for agricultural products such as rice, fruits, coffee, and seafood continues to rise in major markets like China, the U.S., the EU, and Japan, while also expanding to new markets such as Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. Free trade agreements (FTAs) create favorable conditions in terms of tariffs and market access opportunities.

“The Government is also promoting supportive policies through the development of raw material areas, administrative reform, digital transformation, and green agriculture. Favorable geographical location, improved product quality, and the application of standards such as VietGAP, GlobalGAP, and traceability systems are enhancing Vietnam’s competitiveness in international markets,” Mr. Lan emphasized.

However, Vietnamese agriculture also faces numerous difficulties and challenges. Lack of capital, outdated technology, and slow digital transformation are major barriers for many businesses and farming households. New tax policies and trade barriers from the U.S. pose risks of significantly reducing export turnover. Strict standards from the EU, U.S., and Japan regarding food safety, environmental protection, and sustainable labor increase compliance costs.

Vietnam’s logistics infrastructure remains weak, lacking cold storage and specialized transport. Exports are still primarily in raw form, and value chain linkages remain loose. Additionally, climate change, international competition, and spontaneous production continue to pose serious challenges to the sustainable development of the agriculture sector.

A Flexible Strategy Is Needed to Sustain Growth

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment’s plan for the second half of 2025, total agricultural export turnover is projected at around USD 31.6 billion, a decrease of about 4.8% compared to the same period in 2024—equivalent to a decline of approximately USD 1.6 billion—assuming retaliatory tariffs from the U.S. remain unchanged.

In light of this forecast, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Lan believes the target is completely achievable. “Considering factors such as trade policy, weather conditions, market developments, and the sector’s internal capacity, achieving export turnover of USD 31–32 billion in the second half of the year is within reach—as long as there are no major tax fluctuations from the U.S. or extreme weather events affecting production,” Mr. Lan analyzed.

According to Mr. Lan, in the remaining months of 2025, significant challenges—including U.S. tariffs, climate risks (droughts, epidemics), intense competition from advantaged countries, and non-tariff barriers (technical standards, food safety, traceability)—require Vietnam to adopt a flexible response.

To achieve the 2025 growth target and move toward sustainable development, Vietnam must implement a comprehensive strategy, focusing on trade policy adaptation, market expansion, and enhancing the quality and value of agricultural products.

First, Vietnam should intensify bilateral dialogues and negotiations with the U.S. to reduce import tariffs and maintain market share for key products such as seafood and coffee. Simultaneously, it is essential to quickly establish a national traceability system and support small and medium-sized enterprises in meeting FTA standards. In addition, offering financial support packages and accelerating customs reform are urgent solutions to mitigate the impact of trade barriers.

Second, to reduce reliance on major markets, Vietnam needs to diversify export destinations, promote official exports to China, and expand into promising markets like India, Russia, the Middle East, and Africa. This should be coupled with increased trade promotion efforts, leveraging digital platforms, improving training on rules of origin, and developing a national brand for strategic products such as ST25 rice, robusta coffee, and shrimp.

Finally, investment should be encouraged in deep processing to enhance value and reduce dependence on raw exports. The application of smart agriculture (IoT, AI, big data), expansion of standardized raw material areas, strengthening value chain linkages, and developing green, low-emission agriculture are key factors. At the same time, logistics infrastructure must be improved, with investments in cold storage, specialized transport, and human resource development through training and research cooperation, laying a solid foundation for the long-term development of Vietnamese agricultural products.

Source: Financial Online Magazine

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